Nitish’s massive win junks charges of vote theft

All talk about Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s cognitive issues and slackening grasp over the state will subside—at least for some time—as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) seems to be marching towards a landslide win in the Assembly elections. The ruling coalition appears to be securing almost 200 of the 243 Assembly seats (more than four out of five) in the state. This is a thumping victory by any reckoning.

Concomitantly, the results are a big blow to Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav, who was himself struggling in Raghopur at the time of the writing of these lines. Against the backdrop of CM Kumar’s cognitive problems and (now we must say) the supposed anti-incumbency, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan was expected to perform well; that didn’t happen.

There are five major takeaways from the Bihar results. First, administrative acumen does matter, notwithstanding editorialists’ almost complete disregard for this factor. Typically, intellectual elites focus on esoteric issues like caste census, vote theft, and Vishwaguru, while ignoring or downplaying matters related to administration and law and order.

RJD rule under Tejashwi Yadav’s father, Lalu Prasad, became the byword for misgovernance and breakdown of law and order. In those days, another esoteric issue, social justice, was the ruling mantra; in its name, Lalu Prasad presided over a regime in which criminals thrived, industry (whatever little there was) shut down, and common people (the rich as well as the poor) lived in fear.

This is not to say that administration and law and order under Nitish have been exemplary; in many cases, they have been far less than satisfactory, but in comparison with what people suffered under Lalu, the situation is much better, and they didn’t want the risk of the government of Lalu’s son.

Second, the election results showed that there are limits to the charms of populism. Tejashwi promised a government job to every family in Bihar—a promise so stupendously insane that few took it seriously. This doesn’t mean that the ‘revdi’ culture is becoming irrelevant; the fact is that even the Bharatiya Janata Party is indulging in populism, despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s criticism of this culture. It is, however, heartening to see that people don’t buy populist promises that are prima facie stupid.

Third, the results showed that Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s obsessions are costing the party as well as the Opposition dear. He alleged that the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) is vote theft; what really damaged his party’s and the Mahagathbandhan electoral prospects was the excessive focus on this subject. Other and more pressing issues like deteriorating law and order situation in many places, unemployment, migration, poverty, and pathetic education and healthcare facilities were neglected. The fact that this Assembly election saw the highest percentage of turnout also suggests that people didn’t take the charge of vote theft seriously.

Fourth, Gen-Z was unimpressed by the Mahagathbandhan, despite the latter’s efforts to woo it. The Opposition has to do more than just look cool. And, finally, Prashant Kishor’s promise and vision of new governance found little resonance among Biharis. While idealism is admirable, it must be adapted to the imperative of realpolitik. The ruling coalition must realise that the obverse of this coin of wisdom is also true: realpolitik should never detach itself completely from idealism.