Festive Season 2025: Experts Forecast High Growth, Highlight Trust as Key Differentiator
Record online spending expected; Amazon emerges as most trusted platform for returns, customer experience
New Delhi India’s festive season e-commerce sales are poised for a record-breaking year, with spending projected to cross ₹2.2 lakh crores.While price and product selection remain important, industry experts agreed that trust has now become the single most critical factor driving consumer choice.
At a webinar hosted by InGovern Research Services around 2025 Festive E-Commerce Forecast, industry leaders, analysts, and consumer advocates unpacked market outlook, comparing leading platforms, and highlighting how consumer confidence in returns, refunds, and transparent policies is reshaping festive commerce.
Addressing the session, Shriram Subramanian, Founder and MD, InGovern Research Services, stated,“Festive spending in India is growing YoY, with digital platforms nearly doubling their share from 13% to 26%. What stands out is how quickly consumers are shifting larger portions of their festive wallet online, driven by trust in returns, transparent pricing, and the growing comfort with high-value purchases across categories”.
Talking about this year’s festive season, Sachin Taparia, CEO of LocalCircles,added, “When consumers buy big-ticket items online whether it’s a smartphone or a home appliance; they need complete confidence in the platform, because there’s no touch-and-feel experience or dealer interaction. Trust becomes critical in those moments. Another recurring festive trend is that heavy discounting often drives shoppers to spend more than they had originally planned, leading to significant overruns in festive budgets.”
Findings from the recent LocalCircles survey presented during the webinar, highlighted that 89% consider trust asthe most important factor when selecting a platform where Amazon was rated the most preferred e-commerce platform, far ahead of Flipkart and Meesho.
Adding a different perspective on the possible challenges, Madhumita Mohanty, retail strategy consultant noted,“For consumers, returns are non-negotiable and often taken for granted; yet in online platforms, return rates are nearly three times higher than in physical retail. With no touch-and-feel experience, consumers naturally exercise this option. As e-commerce expands beyond metros and Tier 1–2 cities, returns will not only become a logistical challenge but also risk further eroding margins.”
Dr. Badri Narayanan, FellowNITI Aayog & Founder of Infinite sum Modelling, shed light on the overall positioning of the e-commerce platforms. “Amazon continues to be the strongest player in premium urban markets, with a 40-45% share among metro consumers. It is particularly favoured by higher-income demographics for its quality assurance and customer service. Flipkart, meanwhile, leads in Tier 1 cities, especially in categories like electronics and smartphones. Meesho, on the other hand, has carved out dominance in Tier 3+ markets, capturingusers drawn byaffordability and accessibility,”he said.
